Valuer Insights

Business Insights | Hong Kong Residential Insights September 2026

By Valuation & Advisory Services

October 14, 2026

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The U.S. Fed’s 25 bps rate hike prompted the HKMA to raise its Base Rate to 4.25%, but local banks have largely kept lending rates unchanged. Together with new fixed-rate mortgage offerings, this should provide near-term support to Hong Kong’s residential market and buyer sentiment.
Following the summer holiday slowdown, developers accelerated project launches in September, driving a recovery in primary market sales. Year-to-date, primary transactions rose 10.1% YoY to 14,287 units, while secondary transactions increased 29.5% YoY to 35,004 units. Demand remained healthy across both mass and luxury segments, with strong take-up at projects including State Residence, The Sterling II and Chester II.
High-end buyer sentiment has improved, reflected in an increase in luxury transactions and greater developer confidence in launching premium units via tender. Projects such as 21 Borrett Road (Phase 2), The Legacy, Mont Verra continued to attract affluent purchasers.

The ultra-luxury residential market gained momentum in September, with a rising number of high-value primary transactions, highlighting sustained demand from affluent buyers for premium new developments.
Several luxury projects achieved record prices and unit rates. Notably, VICTORIA COAST in Pok Fu Lam set new project records with the sale of a 1,367 sq ft unit and parking space for HKD 36 million (HKD 26,335 psf) in September.
Luxury developments including 21 BORRETT ROAD (Phase 2), The Legacy, Mont Verra and High Peak continued to record notable transactions, reflecting resilient demand in the high-end segment.

The Fed’s first rate hike in three years, weaker stock market sentiment and tighter Mainland outbound investment controls are expected to temper investment demand.
Residential prices rose just 0.1% MoM in August, signalling continued market consolidation. With prices already up 7% YTD, near-term upside is likely limited and consolidation is expected to persist in the coming months.
As prices stabilise, transaction volumes are expected to moderate in 2H 2026. Monthly primary sales have slowed from an average of 2,000 units in 1H to 796 and 942 units in July and August, with around 1,000 units per month projected for the rest of the year. As a result, 2026 new home sales are expected to fall below last year's level.
Having substantially reduced inventory over the past two years, developers may increasingly focus on balancing pricing and sales volume according to their financial objectives.