Valuer Insights

Business Insights | Hong Kong Residential Insights October 2026

By Valuation & Advisory Services

November 5, 2026

Download

Hong Kong's residential market entered a consolidation phase in Q3 2026, with private home prices rising 0.2% MoM in September and 7.1% YTD. Buyers turned more cautious amid shifting U.S. rate expectations and increased market volatility.
Developers responded with more competitive pricing for new launches. Notably, Vision Tide in Yau Tong was launched at below HK$14,000 per sq ft.
In response to softer sales momentum, developers adopted more competitive pricing strategies for new launches. Notably, the first batch of units at Vision Tide in Yau Tong was launched at an average price of below HK$14,000 per sq ft.
Rental growth continued to outperform price growth, with the Rating and Valuation Department private residential rental index rising 0.5% MoM in September and 5.8% YTD, supported by demand from professionals, students and new arrivals.

The luxury residential market continued to outpace the broader housing market in October, with primary luxury projects accounting for most major transactions.
21 BORRETT ROAD (Phase 2) recorded a new project benchmark with the sale of a 2,193 sq ft unit for over HK$164 million (approximately HK$75,000 per sq ft).
The luxury segment is expected to remain relatively resilient, with end-user and wealth-preservation demand continuing to support pricing and transaction activity despite a more uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.

Residential prices are expected to remain broadly stable through the remainder of 2026. Following 7.1% YTD price growth, upside potential appears limited amid interest rate uncertainty, equity market volatility and tighter cross-border capital controls.
Market activity moderated in Q3, with first-hand residential transactions falling 53.7% QoQ to 3,240 units. Primary sales are forecast to reach approximately 4,000-5,000 units in Q4, bringing full-year 2026 transactions to around 20,000 units, broadly in line with 2025.
Despite slower sales, market fundamentals remain sound. Lower unsold inventory and more disciplined launch strategies should support price stability, and we expect full-year residential prices to rise by approximately 7%-8% in 2026, with limited further movement in Q4.