Business Insights | Hong Kong Residential Property Market in 2026

In the February 2025 Budget, the Hong Kong government made a major move to revive the housing market by expanding the HK$100 stamp duty to properties valued up to HK$4 million (previously HK$3 million). For eligible buyers, this meant a dramatic drop in upfront costs: instead of paying 1.5% of the property price—around HK$60,000—they now paid just HK$100. The savings were substantial, often HK$40,000 to HK$60,000 per transaction, and quickly encouraged more activity among first time buyers and investors. The effect was immediate. Purchases of private homes priced below HK$4 million jumped to 14,024 in 2025—a 34% rise from 2024—according to the Land Registry. This segment exceeded 10,000 deals for the second year in a row and captured its highest share of total residential transactions (21%) since 2016. The ripple effect also pushed more buyers to “upgrade,” lifting activity in the HK$6 million to HK$8 million range as well.

Buyers’ Appetite Across Districts

To study the trend, I reviewed 2025 sales data from the Land Registry and focused on 120 popular housing estates with strong transaction activity. In 2025, there were 46,239 secondary private home sales across Hong Kong, and 10,478 of them (22.6%) came from these targeted estates. Among the 120, a core group of 31 estates stood out—each recorded over 100 transactions and together accounted for 6,522 deals, or 62% of all activity within the group.

On Hong Kong Island in 2025, four developments saw strong sales activity, with over 100 transactions each. Taikoo Shing led the market with 374 sales, followed by South Horizon (218), Kornhill (155), and Heng Fa Chuen (151). Kornhill experienced the most significant year-on-year increase, at 22%, driven by strong demand in the HK$5 million to HK$8 million price range, which is attractive to first-time buyers who can access 30-year high-ratio mortgages.

Seven Kowloon developments surpassed 100 transactions: Mei Foo Sun Chuen (396), Whampoa Garden (331), Laguna City (197), Cullinan West (182), Laguna Verde (160), Amoy Gardens (156), and Sceneway Garden (106). Cullinan West experienced the most substantial year-on-year growth, nearly 50%, and led in rental deals (316), reflecting tenant preference for modern amenities.

Sixteen New Territories developments recorded over 100 transactions, totaling 3,338 sales. Top performers included: Lohas Park (668), Kingswood Villas (465), City One Shatin (329), Festival City (198), Metro City (181), Belvedere Garden (169), Ocean Shores (166), Tsuen Wan Centre (159), Double Cove (156), Park Yoho (147), Tai Po Centre (134), Sunshine City (121), Riviera Gardens (120), Park Central (112), Golden Lion Garden (108), and Metro Town (105). Park Yoho and Double Cove also saw significant year-on-year increases, at approximately 30.1% and 27.9%, respectively. These newer estates, with diverse unit sizes, are attractive to renters and investors.

Four Outlying Islands developments exceeded 100 transactions, with a combined total of 688 sales: Discovery Bay (327), Caribbean Coast (178), Park Island (131), and Coastal Skyline (122). The upcoming opening of two new MTR stations in Tung Chung is expected to boost leasing demand, attracting further investment. Additionally, Park Island's future phases are anticipated to appreciate in value.

Opportunities for Hong Kong’s Residential Market

The outlook for Hong Kong’s residential market in 2026 remains broadly positive. With stable interest rates and continued policy support, both prices and transaction volumes are expected to maintain their upward momentum. Major investment banks and local property agencies project home prices to rise by around 5% to 10%. New home sales are likely to exceed 20,000 units for the second consecutive year—a milestone not seen since 2013—while secondary sales are forecast to climb to a five year high of roughly 50,000 units.
At the same time, external and local economic factors will continue to shape market sentiment. A more constructive US–China relationship would bolster confidence broadly, while ongoing economic stabilization measures from the Central Government are expected to provide additional support. Growing demand from mainland capital, together with Hong Kong’s low unemployment rate of 3.8%, should further reinforce housing demand from both buyers and renters. The wealth effect generated by stronger equity markets is also likely to encourage more upgrade activity. Overall, 2026 is poised to be a year of steady expansion, with supportive policies, resilient local demand, and improving investor confidence driving a new phase of moderate growth in both prices and transaction volumes.