Valuer Insights
Business Insights | 2026 Residential Market: Mainland Buyer Surge Drives to New Heights
January 8, 2026
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Angus Luk
Senior Director, Valuation & Advisory Services, Hong Kong
Recent data from the Land Registry paints a picture of a steadily recovering Hong Kong property market. In November, the primary market saw a robust performance, with a total of 18,868 transactions, generating a value of HK$205.85 billion. This represents a significant increase compared to the same period last year, marking an 11.9% rise in volume and a 1% increase in value compared to the 16,868 transactions and HK$203.81 billion recorded in the previous year.
The growth in transaction volume was not evenly distributed across Hong Kong. The New Territories emerged as the leading performer, with a notable surge in activity. Its transaction volume surpassed the previous year's figures by over 50%. Kowloon followed in second place, with 5,434 transactions, which lower than 28.11% of 2024’s 7,559 cases. Hong Kong Island also demonstrated resilience, with a 41% increase in transactions, reaching 3,314 units compared to 2024's 2,350 cases. The prominence of the New Territories, accounting for over 53% of total primary transactions, is partly attributed to developers' focus on launching smaller, more affordable units. This strategy aligns with market trends and the impact of the adjusted stamp duty (HK$100) thresholds, with properties under HK$4 million benefitting from the reduction in February 2024.
Kai Tak continues to be a focal point for investment in the primary market. In the first eleven months of the year, new developments in the area attracted significant capital. Notably, the district registered a primary transaction value of HK$30.2 billion. This influx of capital was channeled into prominent projects, including CULLINAN SKY, THE HENLEY, THE KNIGHTSBRIDGE, PANO HARBOUR, KT Marina 1, Victoria Voyage, Twin Victoria, The Pavilia Forest I and DOUBLE COAST.. This is supported by its leading position with the highest volume of primary transactions in the first 11 months, at 2,155 deals.
Mainland Chinese buyers have emerged as a significant force in the Hong Kong property market. In November, these buyers, identified by their use of Mandarin Pinyin, were particularly active, representing 31.6% of the 1,822 primary market transactions, amounting to HK$9.34 billion. This surge highlights the increasing appeal of Hong Kong properties to mainland investors. Data from Local Agency reveals that the total transaction value for buyers registered with Mandarin Pinyin in November reached HK$15.98 billion, marking a nearly 3% month-on-month increase and the third consecutive month of growth, reaching a one-year high.
The Kai Tak district has emerged as a particularly attractive location for mainland Chinese buyers, reflecting a concentration of recent new property supply. In November, Kai Tak recorded 280 transactions, with over 52% (148 units) attributable to buyers using Mandarin Pinyin. This represents the highest concentration of transactions from this buyer segment across Hong Kong. New developments in the area, including The Henley, Grand Homm, and La Grande Villa, have become focal points for high-value transactions, further solidifying Kai Tak's position as a preferred location.
Based on information from the Our Hong Kong Foundation, approximately 12,866 private residential units are slated for completion between 2023 and 2026. Of these, 5,649 units have been absorbed through November 2025. An analysis of historical primary transaction data in Kai Tak from 2016 to 2023 reveals notable transaction volumes in the years 2017 (2,967 transactions) and 2021 (2,619 transactions). Using the 2017 volume as a benchmark for yearly absorption, approximately 2.4 years would be required to absorb the remaining primary units in the Kai Tak development area. This is a crucial analysis to understand the future market demands.
Hong Kong residential market continues to benefit from the positive impact of recently implemented tax cuts and talent recruitment initiatives, driving robust activity from mainland buyers. Transactions by buyers using Mandarin Pinyin reached record highs in the first 11 months of this year, totaling 12,550 and involving HK$125.6 billion, significantly surpassing the figures from the same period last year. The sustained inflow of capital, alongside a stronger luxury sector, suggests that the "Mainland Money Effect" will persist into next year, with further increases projected in property prices and transaction volume.
The growth in transaction volume was not evenly distributed across Hong Kong. The New Territories emerged as the leading performer, with a notable surge in activity. Its transaction volume surpassed the previous year's figures by over 50%. Kowloon followed in second place, with 5,434 transactions, which lower than 28.11% of 2024’s 7,559 cases. Hong Kong Island also demonstrated resilience, with a 41% increase in transactions, reaching 3,314 units compared to 2024's 2,350 cases. The prominence of the New Territories, accounting for over 53% of total primary transactions, is partly attributed to developers' focus on launching smaller, more affordable units. This strategy aligns with market trends and the impact of the adjusted stamp duty (HK$100) thresholds, with properties under HK$4 million benefitting from the reduction in February 2024.
Kai Tak: A Hub for Investment Driven by Mainland Buyers
Kai Tak continues to be a focal point for investment in the primary market. In the first eleven months of the year, new developments in the area attracted significant capital. Notably, the district registered a primary transaction value of HK$30.2 billion. This influx of capital was channeled into prominent projects, including CULLINAN SKY, THE HENLEY, THE KNIGHTSBRIDGE, PANO HARBOUR, KT Marina 1, Victoria Voyage, Twin Victoria, The Pavilia Forest I and DOUBLE COAST.. This is supported by its leading position with the highest volume of primary transactions in the first 11 months, at 2,155 deals.
Mainland Chinese buyers have emerged as a significant force in the Hong Kong property market. In November, these buyers, identified by their use of Mandarin Pinyin, were particularly active, representing 31.6% of the 1,822 primary market transactions, amounting to HK$9.34 billion. This surge highlights the increasing appeal of Hong Kong properties to mainland investors. Data from Local Agency reveals that the total transaction value for buyers registered with Mandarin Pinyin in November reached HK$15.98 billion, marking a nearly 3% month-on-month increase and the third consecutive month of growth, reaching a one-year high.
The Kai Tak district has emerged as a particularly attractive location for mainland Chinese buyers, reflecting a concentration of recent new property supply. In November, Kai Tak recorded 280 transactions, with over 52% (148 units) attributable to buyers using Mandarin Pinyin. This represents the highest concentration of transactions from this buyer segment across Hong Kong. New developments in the area, including The Henley, Grand Homm, and La Grande Villa, have become focal points for high-value transactions, further solidifying Kai Tak's position as a preferred location.
Based on information from the Our Hong Kong Foundation, approximately 12,866 private residential units are slated for completion between 2023 and 2026. Of these, 5,649 units have been absorbed through November 2025. An analysis of historical primary transaction data in Kai Tak from 2016 to 2023 reveals notable transaction volumes in the years 2017 (2,967 transactions) and 2021 (2,619 transactions). Using the 2017 volume as a benchmark for yearly absorption, approximately 2.4 years would be required to absorb the remaining primary units in the Kai Tak development area. This is a crucial analysis to understand the future market demands.
Hong Kong residential market continues to benefit from the positive impact of recently implemented tax cuts and talent recruitment initiatives, driving robust activity from mainland buyers. Transactions by buyers using Mandarin Pinyin reached record highs in the first 11 months of this year, totaling 12,550 and involving HK$125.6 billion, significantly surpassing the figures from the same period last year. The sustained inflow of capital, alongside a stronger luxury sector, suggests that the "Mainland Money Effect" will persist into next year, with further increases projected in property prices and transaction volume.